News — Signals before narratives
This section focuses on factual economic signals that shape financial conditions —policy decisions, inflation data, labour markets, and global macro shifts.
Rather than reacting to headlines, each piece isolates what actually changed, what constraints tightened or loosened, and what assumptions deserve re-examination.
These updates are not predictions or opinions.
They exist to set the baseline — before scenarios are questioned and numbers are tested.
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Signal 1 — Trade conditions are tightening for export-led regions Recent coverage has focused on trade flows facing renewed pressure...
Signal 1 — Inflation uncertainty is re-tightening rate assumptions Recent coverage has focused on inflation proving more persistent than markets...
Signal 1 — AI investment is being treated as a macro input Recent coverage has increasingly framed AI spending as...
Signal 1 — The Fed held policy rates unchanged The US Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged, while noting...
Snapshot Indicator name: Employment and Labour force participation rate (ages 15-64)Current value (with exact date): Employment 70.3%, Labour force participation...
Signal 1 — Trade policy risk is re-entering the baseline Over the last few days, major coverage has centred on...